1.08.2017

The Schaefer Effect

"The mayor wants us to go outside and cheer President Reagan as he passes by.  The motorcade is scheduled to pass Pratt and Charles in about fifteen minutes.  Get your coats on now."  The man who gave us this abrupt order was the Commissioner of Health of the Baltimore City Health Department.

The year was 1980.  We had no choice--that is, if we wanted to keep our jobs.  So the entire staff of the Health Department, dozens of us, marched into the cold, waiting to cheer The Gipper.   We had to wait a long time.  (Ronald Reagen was scheduled to give a speech somewhere in Baltimore, I don't exactly remember where or why.)

Finally, the motorcade whizzed by.  We assumed that the cars raced past along the closed-off thoroughfare for security reasons.  I doubt if the president had time to notice us. or that he even cared if he did.

I felt like a South American peasant having no choice but to execute a dictator's command.  After that, chilled and unfulfilled, we returned to work.

The man who gave the Commissioner of Health that command was the Mayor of Baltimore at the time, William Donald Schaefer.




Mayor Schaefer was a member of the City Council for some years before he began his long service as mayor of Baltimore.  He was thought by many not to be very bright, but got things done in the vast red-tape sea upon which many bureaucrats floundered.  He had a temper and often got his way by yelling and browbeating others.  He had a huge network of powerful friends; if you crossed him, you were in for trouble.  He was dedicated to Baltimore, however, and accomplished many good things. For instance, as manufacturing left Baltimore, which was inevitable, Mayor Schaefer switched the focus from factories to tourism.  Baltimore's famous Inner Harbor is a testimony to the many successes of his administration.

After serving four terms as mayor, he became governor in 1986.  He had accomplishments as governor as well, but he was much more effective as mayor.  Yelling didn't work as well in Annapolis; he couldn't boss state representatives around  as if he owned the state.  Calling Maryland's Eastern Shore a "shit house" and referring to women, including female politicians, as "pretty little misses," certainly didn't help his state-wide reputation either!  He worked hard, however, learned to compromise somewhat, and had several successes.

The point I am trying to make here is that strategies for success in one context might not work well at all in another.  Resultant difficulties from failure to adapt and change to a new situation is what I call "the Schaefer Effect."



2.




I contend that "The Schaefer Effect" is going to assure Trump's failure as a president.  He is a master of inflaming his base with lies; he tells his fans just what they want to hear.  They are opposed to immigration.  He tells them that Mexicans are sending rapists to the United States.  They hate Obama.  He tells them that Obama's administration has been the worst ever.  They hate Hillary Clinton even more.  He tells them that she is a crook and, if elected, he'll appoint a special prosecutor and send her to jail.  He will replace the disastrous Obama care with something great--even though he has no plan.  He will build a wall between Mexico and the United States and Mexico will pay for it. He's going to "drain the swamp" and free America from the machinations of the big banks. Climate change is a Chinese hoax. Etc. Etc.

It is clear to me that the only reason he tells these lies is to receive the cheers of the crowd.

He has disparaged the C.I.A. and F.B.I. about the Russian hacking, because, if he acknowledged it, it would be an indication that he might not have won, had the Russians not done what they did.  Here is a tweet of his from January 7, 2017:

"Only reason hacking of the poorly defended DNC is discussed is that the loss by the Dems was so big that they are totally embarrassed."

Never mind the truth: he didn't "win big" at all--Hillary Clinton received about three million votes more than he did.  (He refused to acknowledge this with another lie, namely that there was widespread voter fraud.)

The lies that went over so well with the angry members of the white working-class, however, will not go over well with Democrats and Republicans in Congress due to the Schaefer effect.  Republicans are understandably delighted that the party controls all three branches of government, but they're not going to be his cheerleaders.  If Trump indulges in bizarre outbursts (and he assuredly will) that challenge Republican interests, they will let him know about it. Conservative politicians such as Lindsay Graham and "I like heroes that don't get captured" McCain are understandably shocked by Trump's response to the hacking.  It is not an exaggeration to call it borderline treasonous. Not to mention all those conflicts of interest that are not going to go away!

Political pundits, especially the liberal ones, are shocked and dismayed.  However, I believe they're missing an important point: Trump is crazy.  I don't use that word lightly.  He is a pathological narcissist and thus in need of constant praise.  He will deny reality to get that praise.  He is not able to endure the slightest criticism, however justified.

Senator Dick Durbin recently said the following: "I spent months never believing he would become president.  I sincerely hope that the office makes the man."

This is NOT going to happen.  I repeat: Trump is crazy. This isn't name-calling; this isn't a partisan insulting of a man whose policies one doesn't like.  Trump's pathology trumps content.  If Putin had insulted him and supported Clinton, the former would get the brunt of a string of vicious Trump tweets. 

No party wants to have a truly crazy man in charge.  Even Republican opposition will become more and more apparent.

All presidents have to endure criticism, some of it justified, some if it not.  In Trump's case, any criticism shakes him to his pathological core.  He reacts to it as many a toddler would: by throwing a tantrum.  

How did this man ever get to be president?  Let's hope he's removed from office before serious damage is done to our already endangered republic.

A doctor friend of mine, a conservative, recently told me how he viewed the oncoming Trump presidency: "I just hope we don't get vaporized."

I repeat: Trump is crazy.

It's a different ballgame--one in which the home team is going to lose badly.  Every czar beyond our shores is going to be pleased.


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