This post contains my political predictions for the next four years, the period of Trump's presidency. Before I start these Lamentations for Muted Trumpet, I would like to make the following points:
1. I am not a pundit; I am very interested in politics, but politics is not my area of expertise. (Which might not be a serious disadvantage, since pundits are often dead-wrong,)
2. As my friends know, I am often wrong as well. After all, when my family and I settled down to watch the election returns, I assured family members not to worry. "Trump cannot win, " I said. Yeah, right.
3. I admit that most people would consider my political views to be liberal ones. The way I see it, however, is this: Two very major problems in my country are race and inequality. Which party do I think would best address these issues? You guessed it.
4. I come from that sliver of a social stratum, (which has since, unfortunately, increased,) between poverty and working-class. I have become a professional, but I never have forgotten my difficult roots. My nuclear family now is tri-racial: brown (my wife is from India;) black (my adopted son is African-American;) and white, (me). It is not surprising, therefore, that I see inequality and racism as major problems. Having written that, I would like to make clear that I do not fit the white working class into a "basket of deplorables"--to the contrary, I have a lot of empathy for them.
Now we can proceed to the predictions:
1. Within two years from now, and certainly by the end of Trump's presidency, many, perhaps most, of Trump supporters will realize they've been had.
2. The economy will improve initially and then, perhaps rapidly, deteriorate. Economic conditions will be worse at the end of Trump's presidency than they were at the end of Obama's. I think there is at least a 50% possibility of a fairly major recession.
3. The rich will continue to get richer, while the poor will continue to get poorer. The poor will have less access to food stamps. The minimum wage will not rise. However, social security will remain largely intact--the age limit for retirement might be increased, however, which will adversely affect those less well off financially. Regarding Medicare: the age for receiving benefits might be raised here as well, and Medicare Advantage plans will increase, to the delight of insurance companies. However, Ryan will not get his way and be able to transform Medicare into a voucher system.
4. Many will lose medical insurance, especially those covered by ACA federal funds for Medicaid. The Republicans might delay repeal of the ACA for two years, in order not to suffer losses in the 2018 midterm elections, but the eventual impact will be great. It would be impossible to cover pre-existing conditions without requiring the young and healthy to be covered. Repealing much of the ACA will be a windfall for the rich. Republicans have no intention of increasing taxes to pay for medical services--as all developed countries do--making illusory their promise of a better replacement for Obamacare. If we're lucky, the havoc caused by the repeal of the ACA will eventually lead to a single payer system after Trump's exit.
5. There will be many scandals. Trump will continue to have major conflicts of interest regarding real estate holdings, and will probably be found at some point to be in violation of the emolument clause of the Constitution. It is very likely that some of his cabinet members will be involved in scandals as well.
6. We are in for a wild ride. Trump has insulted a lot of groups; their members will continue to vehemently protest his presidency, and will eventually be joined by disappointed Trump supporters as well. The wall between Mexico and the United States, however, will not be built as promised; nor will the majority of illegal immigrants be deported. Hate crimes will continue to increase. There will be, however, no official abrogation of citizenship rights of Muslim-Americans.
7. Foreign powers, such as North Korea, China, and Russia, will challenge and test Trump's ability as president. He will not be able to counter them adequately. If there is a major act of terrorism, for instance, Trump will overreact in a dangerous way. There is a good chance--more than 50%--that a major political crisis will occur during Trump's presidency.
8. Trump is a pathological narcissist, needing constant affirmation. He is unable to grow into his position; his position will eventually make his incompetence more and more evident. I think the chance for impeachment is at least 50%.
9. Some of Trump's more outlandish views might foster cooperation between Republicans and Democrats. This will be a welcome trend.
10. Trump might be able to pass a much-needed program to repair infrastructure. How this can be done without raising taxes, however, eludes me.
11. A very conservative Supreme Court will not overturn Rowe vs. Wade, but will continue to limit, along with federal courts, access to abortion. The days of Planned Parenthood are probably numbered.
12. You don't have to be a Nostradamus to predict this one: climate change will get considerably worse.
13. The possibility of ending the Israeli-Palestine conflict will become more and more remote, adding to international tensions.
I don't want to end with the unlucky number thirteen, so I will add another:
14. Democrats will regain the presidency and quite possibly the Senate, the latter as early as 2018.
Well, those are my predictions. Trump's will probably wind up being the worst presidency in the history of the United States. I end on a hopeful note: I hope I'm wrong. I would much rather have egg on my face, as it were, than, as it were again, tears on my cheeks.
Every year, I will re-post these predictions with a few words about their accuracy at the time. Let's hope that these predictions will be able to be dismissed as dead-wrong views of an out-of-touch liberal, pathetically unable to digest his just desserts of sour grapes and acrid lemons.
No comments:
Post a Comment