The Inauguration of Narcissus, January 20, 2017

Who would have guessed it? The pundits, just about all of them, have gotten it wrong again.  I believed them the first time: I told my nephew, Ranjit, who looked a little nervous on that fateful night when the election results started to come in, "Stop worrying, Ranji--Americans could never elect a man like that."  Stop worrying, indeed.

The pundits were wrong, the polls were wrong, and I, who read and listened to what they had to say, was wrong as well.

This time I'm not going along with them.  They still don't know who Donald Trump is.  They think he's an unqualified--they've got that right--demagogue--they've got that right as well--who, nevertheless,  is ready to do what he says he will do, namely, to fight like hell for the working-class, especially the white working-class.  Wrong, wrong, wrong.

The real Trump is transparent as the notoriously ambiguous Delphic Oracle.  A famous example was its response when asked whether the Greeks or the Romans would win the Trojan war.  (I could not find the Latin quote, so I am translating what I remember to be the English version back into Latin.  If anyone knows the Latin quote, please let me know!)  The oracle's revelation is as follows: Dico Troianos Danaos vincerunt.  "I say that the Trojans will defeat the Greeks."  But this could also mean,  "I say that the Greeks will defeat the Trojans!"  (Troianaos is in the accusative case since it follows "dico" and either Troianos or Danaos can be the subject of the dependent clause, since Latin, as an inflected language, has much freedom regarding word order.)

Thus, the oracle was more than ambiguous, it was meaningless.  Similarly, one can't be certain if Trump believes anything he says.  The one thing we can be certain about Trump is that he is a pathological narcissist.  He needs praise like frogs need water.  He will say just about anything to get it.  He's like a stand-up comedian who feels like he's in heaven when he delights the audience, and feels like he's in hell when he flops.  Another thing about Trump: he can accept criticism as readily  as a fly, if it could think, would accept an invitation to play trampoline upon a spider's web.

I give but one example.  During the Golden Globe Awards, Meryl Streep said that Trump's mockery of a handicapped journalist "broke her heart."  Trump replied--how else--with a tweet:

Meryl Streep, one of the most over-rated actresses in Hollywood, doesn't know me but attacked me last night at the Golden Globes. She is a Hillary flunky who lost big.  For the 100th time, I never "mocked" a disabled reporter (would never do that) but simply showed him "groveling" when he totally changed a 16 year old story that he had written in order to make me look bad. Just more very dishonest media.

(Ugh! What ugly writing!)

Do you doubt that his response would have been very different if Meryl Streep had praised him?  If you do, you're like the pundits who try to give meaning to the meaningless.   Trump reminds me of a toddler throwing a fit when his brother gets two cookies when he only gets one. If his brother, however, gave the two cookies to him, the toddler's  pouty lips would turn into a drooling smile in an instant.  Whatever Trump says is merely a means to get praise; change the audience and Trump's "message" will change accordingly.

(This, by the way, is what Trump said about Streep in 2015: "Meryl Streep is excellent; she is a fine person, too.")

If sparrows were in power, he would tweet wildly in their favor, and beam with delight when they all tweeted  back their admiration.  If they weren't important, he'd be trying to wildly empower stray cats.

Donald Trump, to put it mildly, had never been an advocate for the working class before he ran for president.  He associated throughout his career with whites like those he appointed for his cabinet, rather than like the disgruntled rural whites who imagine he means what he says.

How can one tweet for the poor tweety birds with a cabinet full of rich vultures?

Trump reminds me of a comedian who gets into trouble for having made an ethnic slur.  "I was just trying to be funny.  I love and support (lesbian, gays, or whoever he had insulted).  If I offended anyone, I apologize. Still love me, still love me--please!" Yes, Trump is more like a narcissistic comedian rather than like a politician.  He delivers what his audience wants to hear with true mastery.  " I just needed to get my cheers and  claps"--yes, but in Trump's case the jokes are on us.

An example of one of those jokes-on-us is the following excerpt from his acceptance speech:

Mothers and children trapped in poverty in our inner cities, rusted-out factories scattered like tombstones across the landscape of the nation, an educational system flush with cash, but which leaves our young and beautiful students deprived of all knowledge and the crime and the gangs and the drugs that have taken too many lives and robbed our country of so much unrealized potential.  This American carnage stops right here and right now.

A wildly inaccurate clown's-eye view of America! "Let the toddler rant," the Republicans must be saying to themselves.  "We control both Houses and we have a very different agenda."

Yet the pundits continue to analyze such statements as if there were content behind them. For instance, this is what Gail Collins wrote in response to his inaugural speech (New York Times, January 21, 2017):

He still appears to think that all poor neighborhoods are terror zones and public schools are something out of "Oliver Twist."

Here is a quote from the Times editorial from the same date:

The new president offered a tortured rewrite of American history...

Liberal journalists and TV pundits have been providing analyses in the same vein for some time.  They are wrong.

Here's what I believe is the real reason why Trump has such a dystopian view of America: if, in your own myth,  you must be a savior, the people you are to save must first be in grave danger.  If they're not really in gave danger, well, make it up. 

If you want to be known as the  liberator of birds, it helps to put them in cages first. 

Trump, I say again, is a pathological narcissist.  A better adjective that applies to him, instead of misguided, ignorant, racist, misogynist is, well, crazy.

According to a Russian proverb, a wise man has long ears, big eyes and a short tongue. That does not describe the person whom we elected to the highest office of the most powerful country in the world.  One that does: a narcissist is deaf to words of wisdom, blind to insight, has a big mouth and has, in Trump's case, small hands as well.  Without cheers, he disappears.  I hope it won't take too long before the white working-class figures out that they've been had.  Until then, there is a very good chance that Trump will do considerable damage to democracy, to the United States, and to the world.

We're in for a wild ride indeed.

The Schaefer Effect

"The mayor wants us to go outside and cheer President Reagan as he passes by.  The motorcade is scheduled to pass Pratt and Charles in about fifteen minutes.  Get your coats on now."  The man who gave us this abrupt order was the Commissioner of Health of the Baltimore City Health Department.

The year was 1980.  We had no choice--that is, if we wanted to keep our jobs.  So the entire staff of the Health Department, dozens of us, marched into the cold, waiting to cheer The Gipper.   We had to wait a long time.  (Ronald Reagen was scheduled to give a speech somewhere in Baltimore, I don't exactly remember where or why.)

Finally, the motorcade whizzed by.  We assumed that the cars raced past along the closed-off thoroughfare for security reasons.  I doubt if the president had time to notice us. or that he even cared if he did.

I felt like a South American peasant having no choice but to execute a dictator's command.  After that, chilled and unfulfilled, we returned to work.

The man who gave the Commissioner of Health that command was the Mayor of Baltimore at the time, William Donald Schaefer.

Mayor Schaefer was a member of the City Council for some years before he began his long service as mayor of Baltimore.  He was thought by many not to be very bright, but got things done in the vast red-tape sea upon which many bureaucrats floundered.  He had a temper and often got his way by yelling and browbeating others.  He had a huge network of powerful friends; if you crossed him, you were in for trouble.  He was dedicated to Baltimore, however, and accomplished many good things. For instance, as manufacturing left Baltimore, which was inevitable, Mayor Schaefer switched the focus from factories to tourism.  Baltimore's famous Inner Harbor is a testimony to the many successes of his administration.

After serving four terms as mayor, he became governor in 1986.  He had accomplishments as governor as well, but he was much more effective as mayor.  Yelling didn't work as well in Annapolis; he couldn't boss state representatives around  as if he owned the state.  Calling Maryland's Eastern Shore a "shit house" and referring to women, including female politicians, as "pretty little misses," certainly didn't help his state-wide reputation either!  He worked hard, however, learned to compromise somewhat, and had several successes.

The point I am trying to make here is that strategies for success in one context might not work well at all in another.  Resultant difficulties from failure to adapt and change to a new situation is what I call "the Schaefer Effect."



2.

I contend that "The Schaefer Effect" is going to assure Trump's failure as a president.  He is a master of inflaming his base with lies; he tells his fans just what they want to hear.  They are opposed to immigration.  He tells them that Mexicans are sending rapists to the United States.  They hate Obama.  He tells them that Obama's administration has been the worst ever.  They hate Hillary Clinton even more.  He tells them that she is a crook and, if elected, he'll appoint a special prosecutor and send her to jail.  He will replace the disastrous Obama care with something great--even though he has no plan.  He will build a wall between Mexico and the United States and Mexico will pay for it. He's going to "drain the swamp" and free America from the machinations of the big banks. Climate change is a Chinese hoax. Etc. Etc.

It is clear to me that the only reason he tells these lies is to receive the cheers of the crowd.

He has disparaged the C.I.A. and F.B.I. about the Russian hacking, because, if he acknowledged it, it would be an indication that he might not have won, had the Russians not done what they did.  Here is a tweet of his from January 7, 2017:

"Only reason hacking of the poorly defended DNC is discussed is that the loss by the Dems was so big that they are totally embarrassed."

Never mind the truth: he didn't "win big" at all--Hillary Clinton received about three million votes more than he did.  (He refused to acknowledge this with another lie, namely that there was widespread voter fraud.)

The lies that went over so well with the angry members of the white working-class, however, will not go over well with Democrats and Republicans in Congress due to the Schaefer effect.  Republicans are understandably delighted that the party controls all three branches of government, but they're not going to be his cheerleaders.  If Trump indulges in bizarre outbursts (and he assuredly will) that challenge Republican interests, they will let him know about it. Conservative politicians such as Lindsay Graham and "I like heroes that don't get captured" McCain are understandably shocked by Trump's response to the hacking.  It is not an exaggeration to call it borderline treasonous. Not to mention all those conflicts of interest that are not going to go away!

Political pundits, especially the liberal ones, are shocked and dismayed.  However, I believe they're missing an important point: Trump is crazy.  I don't use that word lightly.  He is a pathological narcissist and thus in need of constant praise.  He will deny reality to get that praise.  He is not able to endure the slightest criticism, however justified.

Senator Dick Durbin recently said the following: "I spent months never believing he would become president.  I sincerely hope that the office makes the man."

This is NOT going to happen.  I repeat: Trump is crazy. This isn't name-calling; this isn't a partisan insulting of a man whose policies one doesn't like.  Trump's pathology trumps content.  If Putin had insulted him and supported Clinton, the former would get the brunt of a string of vicious Trump tweets. 

No party wants to have a truly crazy man in charge.  Even Republican opposition will become more and more apparent.

All presidents have to endure criticism, some of it justified, some if it not.  In Trump's case, any criticism shakes him to his pathological core.  He reacts to it as many a toddler would: by throwing a tantrum.  

How did this man ever get to be president?  Let's hope he's removed from office before serious damage is done to our already endangered republic.

A doctor friend of mine, a conservative, recently told me how he viewed the oncoming Trump presidency: "I just hope we don't get vaporized."

I repeat: Trump is crazy.

It's a different ballgame--one in which the home team is going to lose badly.  Every czar beyond our shores is going to be pleased.

Political Predictions: A Lamentation for Muted Trumpet

This post contains my political predictions for the next four years, the period of Trump's presidency.  Before I start these Lamentations for Muted Trumpet, I would like to make the following points:

1. I am not a pundit; I am very interested in politics, but politics is not my area of expertise. (Which might not be a serious disadvantage, since pundits are often dead-wrong,) 

2. As my friends know, I am often wrong as well.  After all, when my family and I settled down to watch the election returns, I assured family members not to worry.  "Trump cannot win, " I said.  Yeah, right. 

3.  I admit that most people would consider my political views to be liberal ones.  The way I see it, however, is this: Two very major problems in my country are race and inequality.  Which party do I think would best address these issues?  You guessed it.

4. I come from that sliver of a social stratum, (which has since, unfortunately, increased,) between poverty and working-class. I have become a professional, but I never have forgotten my difficult roots. My nuclear family now is tri-racial: brown (my wife is from India;) black (my adopted son is African-American;) and white, (me).  It is not surprising, therefore, that I see inequality and racism as major problems.  Having written that, I would like to make clear that I do not fit the white working class into a "basket of deplorables"--to the contrary, I have a lot of empathy for them.  

Now we can proceed to the predictions:

1.  Within two years from now, and certainly by the end of Trump's presidency, many, perhaps most, of Trump supporters  will realize they've been had.

2. The economy will improve initially and then, perhaps rapidly, deteriorate.  Economic conditions will be worse at the end of Trump's presidency than they were at the end of Obama's. I think there is at least a 50% possibility of a fairly major recession.

3.  The rich will continue to get richer, while the poor will continue to get poorer.  The poor will have less access to food stamps.  The minimum wage will not rise.  However, social security will remain largely intact--the age limit for retirement might be increased, however, which will adversely affect those less well off financially.  Regarding Medicare: the age for receiving benefits might be raised here as well, and Medicare Advantage plans will increase, to the delight of insurance companies.  However, Ryan will not get his way and be able to transform Medicare into a voucher system.

4. Many will lose medical insurance, especially those covered by ACA federal funds for Medicaid.  The Republicans might delay repeal of the ACA for two years, in order not to suffer losses in the 2018 midterm elections, but the eventual impact will be great.  It would be impossible to cover  pre-existing conditions without requiring the young and healthy to be covered.   Repealing much of the ACA will be a windfall for the rich.  Republicans have no intention of increasing taxes to pay for medical services--as all developed countries do--making illusory their promise of a better replacement for Obamacare. If we're lucky, the havoc caused by the repeal of the ACA will eventually lead to a single payer system after Trump's exit. 

5. There will be many scandals.  Trump will continue to have major conflicts of interest regarding real estate holdings, and will probably be found at some point to be in violation of the emolument clause of the Constitution. It is very likely that some of his cabinet members will be involved in scandals as well.

6.  We are in for a wild ride.  Trump has insulted a lot of groups; their members will continue to vehemently protest his presidency, and will eventually be joined by disappointed Trump supporters as well.  The wall between Mexico and the United States, however, will not be built as promised; nor will the majority of illegal immigrants be deported.  Hate crimes will continue to increase.  There will be, however, no official abrogation  of citizenship rights of Muslim-Americans. 

7. Foreign powers, such as North Korea, China, and Russia, will challenge and test Trump's ability as president.  He will not be able to counter them adequately. If there is a major act of terrorism, for instance, Trump will overreact in a dangerous way.  There is a good chance--more than 50%--that a major political crisis will occur during Trump's presidency.

8.  Trump is a pathological narcissist, needing constant affirmation.  He is unable to grow into his position; his position will eventually make his incompetence more and more evident.  I think the chance for impeachment is at least 50%.

9. Some of Trump's more outlandish views might foster cooperation between Republicans and Democrats.  This will be a welcome trend.

10. Trump might be able to pass a much-needed program to repair infrastructure.  How this can be done without raising taxes, however,  eludes me.

11. A very conservative Supreme Court will not overturn Rowe vs. Wade, but will continue to limit, along with federal courts, access to abortion.  The days of Planned Parenthood are probably numbered.

12. You don't have to be a Nostradamus to predict this one: climate change will get considerably worse.  

13. The possibility of ending the Israeli-Palestine conflict will become more and more remote, adding to international tensions.

I don't want to end with the unlucky number thirteen, so I will add another:

14. Democrats will regain the presidency and quite possibly the Senate, the latter as early as 2018.

Well, those are my predictions.  Trump's will probably wind up being the worst presidency in the history of the United States.  I end on a hopeful note: I hope I'm wrong.  I would much rather have egg on my face, as it were, than, as it were again, tears on my cheeks.  

Every year, I will re-post these predictions with a few words about their accuracy at the time.  Let's hope that these predictions will be able to be dismissed as dead-wrong views of an out-of-touch liberal, pathetically unable to digest his just desserts of sour grapes and acrid lemons.