White Flight

No, I'm not referring to the exodus of whites from inner cities to suburbia which occurred during the sixties.  I'm referring to white flight from life...to an early grave.  The death rate for white middle-aged Americans aged 45-54 has been increasing since 2000 in a truly alarming fashion.  The increase is found solely among working-class whites, that is, those whose highest level of education is high school or less. (Wealthy white professionals are doing just fine.)

This surprising statistic was brought to light by the research of a husband and wife team, Angus Deaton, who was awarded the 2015 Nobel Prize in economics, and Dr. Ann Case.  The death rate shown below is for all U.S. whites; the death rate for working class whites in this age group must be even worse. (The death rate for non-working class whites continues to decrease.)

The results are astounding.  Although not shown in this chart, the death rates for blacks and Hispanics in this age group continue to decline.  The death rate for blacks, while higher than those for whites in this group, indicates that the gap in life expectancy is rapidly closing.  In addition, the rates for whites continue to decline in every industrialized country with the exception of the United States.

Three causes of mortality are (very) largely responsible for the increase: suicide, drugs and alcohol abuse.  If this trend continues for just a little longer, working-class whites will be the most vulnerable ethnic group prior to old age in the country.  (White males are especially affected.)  This is truly astounding, given the fact that blacks continue to suffer from widespread discrimination.

What's going on here?  The researchers are flummoxed.  The conservative commentator Ross Douthat believes ("The Dying of the Whites," New York Times, November 8, 2015) that the increase is largely due to decreasing religious affiliation in this group, and to government coddling--he mentions the provision of disability benefits in some cases as an example.  This is beneath comment.  David Frum, my favorite conservative, mentioned (Real Time with Bill Maher, November 6, 2015),  that increased feelings of alienation, loneliness and despair are the culprits.  I agree, but for different reasons.  He cites the fact that the marriage rate has decreased in this group as well as the decline in church attendance.  He is a compassionate conservative, but he still blames the victim.  Does he really think that all we need to do is to get these people spouses and convince them that a life without God is a life without meaning?  A highly dubious assertion!  Church attendance has fallen off more markedly in Europe, while death rates among whites in this age group continue to decline.  The majority of births occur out of wedlock in Sweden; Swedish death rates continue to decline as well.  Government programs for the poor and working class are much more generous in most European countries, yet the social mobility of the poor is greater. (America's is the lowest among industrialized nations.) The reasoning of Frum and Douthat in this regard is bogus.

I think I have a finger on the pulse of why so many whites are becoming, well, pulseless.  Racism obviously isn't a factor: if these whites had a better education and achieved marketable skills, they would indeed be sitting pretty.

A clue was provided by a survey conducted in 2014.  The first statement of the survey was, "America will be a land of opportunity in ten years." 45% of blacks agreed; 47% of Hispanics agreed--but only 29% of whites.  The second statement of the survey was, "(One is) More Likely to Get Ahead with Hard Work Playing by Rules in 10 years."  44% of blacks agreed; 49% of Hispanics agreed--but only 24% of whites agreed.  Mind you the respondents were not classified according to age and education--one would expect an even more dismal pessimism among working-class whites.

Why are Dick and Jane, Tom, Dick and Harry convinced that their glass is a good deal less than half full?  Aren't the incomes of working-class whites higher than those of blacks.? They are--but there is a difference.  Many of these whites come from families that were stable and doing quite well only a generation or so ago.  You didn't need a high school education to work in a steel mill.  Once upon a time, working-class whites willing to work hard could afford a house and an education for their children.  Those days are long gone  Blacks, in contrast, tend to come from families who had it even harder than contemporary black families due to the unspeakable racism of previous generations.  In short, working-class whites feel that their world is coming apart while blacks are much more likely to believe that things are getting better

The road to despair can be as short as the distance one takes  to fall flat on one's face.  Do we really have to study the relationship between despair and suicide, drugs and alcohol?  Yes, but undoubtedly only to determine the degree to which they apply in specific cases.  The iceberg tip of suicide always caps tons of frozen despair.  (For every suicide, how many are getting by with great difficulty, plagued by despair?  I'm not sure, but it's surely a lot.).

Causes and Solutions

To me the reason why working-class whites are increasingly pessimistic is abundantly clear;  it is due to the egregious degree of income inequality in this country, which is getting even worse.  I am, of course, not advocating affirmative action for working-class whites alone; I am, however, advocating for massive intervention to change the nightmares of poor and working-class Americans of all races into tolerable dreams.

The grim statistics prove that racism per se is not the only thing harmful to the welfare not only to blacks, but to all.  Poor and working-class blacks suffer a double whammy.  Notice that the vast majority of black victims of police brutality occurs among the poor.  Rich blacks in Gucci suits are hardly likely to be arrested and abused for jaywalking. Class matters.

The members of the white working class are the canaries trapped in the poisonous mine of unregulated capitalism.  A form of capitalism is arguably the most efficient governmental model; human nature, which is no stranger to untrammeled greed, demands that there be checks and balances, if democracy is to thrive.  Otherwise we're heading for a society in which oligarchs live in mansions inside gated communities and the rest live in hovels on the fences' wrong side.

At present the richest 1% of Americans own 40% of the wealth; the richest ten percent own 80% of the wealth, while the bottom 80% own only 7% of the wealth.  We have reached a very dangerous level of inequality; our democracy is very much under duress as a result.  Social mobility, one of the greatest guarantors of democracy,  is lower in America than it is in Canada and Europe.

We need to make education affordable for everyone.  We need to assure that everyone who works receives a living wage.  We need massive investments in our crumbling infrastructure; we need a New Deal-type program to provide the workers...

We really need a lot of things but are we going to get them?

One of the hindrances is the Democratic party itself.  It has increasingly practiced so-called identity politics, reaching out to women and minorities, while writing off working-class whites.  (What is the matter with Kansas?  Plenty; I'm not sure why, but its malignancy is unmerrily metastasizing throughout all fifty states.)  Angry and ignorant whites are the bread and butter of the Republican party.  Without their support, there are not enough oligarchs to elect a dog catcher.  If the Democrats ever convinced working-class whites to vote for their own interests, things would change for the better overnight.  I'm not sure how this can be done, it's not easy to reason with the alienated and marginalized, exposed to so much propaganda from the right, who tend to vote for those that look like them yet do not care about them at all. True, reaching out to those who bite the hands that need them is a daunting task; it is however an essential one.

If you believe as I do that income inequality is one of the most pressing of contemporary American problems, ask yourself this: which party would tend to decrease this pernicious trend?  The answer is obvious.

Progressives must understand that the mortality rate among working-class whites is a convincing indication that all victims of the current oligarchy need immediate relief.  If income inequality continues to increase at the current rate, our democracy, already injured, will not survive.

White flight to light--That would be a healthful turn indeed.